NORTH CAROLINA — A developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean could increase the chances for a wetter and potentially snowier winter in parts of North Carolina during the 2026-27 season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
In its latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion released Thursday, NOAA said El Niño conditions are likely to develop soon and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Forecasters said there is an 82% chance El Niño will emerge between May and July 2026 and a 96% chance it will persist through the winter months of December 2026 through February 2027.
El Niño is a climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The pattern often influences winter weather across the United States, including storm tracks, temperatures and precipitation.
For North Carolina, El Niño winters have historically increased the likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions, especially across the southern and eastern portions of the state. In some years, the added moisture and stronger southern storm track can also raise the chances for snow and ice events, particularly in the mountains and central parts of the state when colder air is in place.
NOAA said warmer-than-average subsurface ocean temperatures in the Pacific have strengthened for six consecutive months, increasing confidence that El Niño will form in the coming weeks.
Forecasters cautioned that the strength of the El Niño event and the exact winter impacts remain uncertain. Officials said El Niño does not guarantee major snowstorms, but it can create a more favorable pattern for winter precipitation across the Southeast.
