TENNESSEE — Forecasters with the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center say El Niño conditions are likely to develop soon and continue through the winter, a weather pattern that can increase the chances for colder and wetter conditions across parts of the South, including Tennessee.
In its latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued May 14, NOAA said there is an 82% chance El Niño will emerge between May and July and a 96% chance it will persist through the winter of 2026-27.
El Niño is a climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. The pattern can influence weather across the United States, often bringing cooler and wetter winter conditions to the southern tier of the country.
While NOAA officials cautioned that it is too early to predict exact snowfall totals or storm tracks, a developing El Niño could raise the likelihood of Tennessee seeing earlier cold snaps and increased winter precipitation later this year.
Historically, some El Niño winters have brought notable snow and ice events to portions of Tennessee, especially in Middle and East Tennessee. Stronger El Niño patterns can also support storm systems moving across the Gulf Coast and Southeast, which can increase the chance for winter weather when cold air is in place.
NOAA said there is still uncertainty regarding how strong the upcoming El Niño may become, noting that no intensity category currently has greater than a 37% probability.
The Climate Prediction Center will continue monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions over the coming months as meteorologists refine winter outlooks heading into the 2026-27 season.
