INDIANA — An emerging El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean could increase the chances of a snowier winter across parts of Indiana during the 2026-27 season, according to the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that El Niño is likely to develop soon and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. Forecasters placed the chance of El Niño forming between May and July 2026 at 82%, with a 96% chance the climate pattern persists into the winter months.
The Climate Prediction Center currently has an “El Niño Watch” in effect.
El Niño is a periodic warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can influence weather patterns around the world, including in the United States. While every El Niño event is different, the pattern has historically increased the likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions across parts of the Ohio Valley during winter.
For Indiana, that could mean greater opportunities for winter storms and snowfall if cold air is able to align with storm systems tracking through the region. Northern Indiana typically sees the greatest snowfall impacts during favorable El Niño winters, especially in areas influenced by Lake Michigan lake-effect snow.
The latest discussion from NOAA noted that ocean temperatures beneath the surface of the Pacific have continued warming for six consecutive months, while computer forecast models increasingly favor El Niño development by early summer.
Forecasters cautioned there is still uncertainty surrounding how strong the El Niño event may become. NOAA said no single intensity category currently has more than a 37% chance of occurring, meaning the eventual impacts on Indiana’s winter weather remain unclear.
Meteorologists emphasized that stronger El Niño events do not automatically guarantee major snowstorms or harsh winter conditions. However, the developing pattern is being closely monitored because it can increase the odds of active storm tracks across portions of the Midwest later this year.
The next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is scheduled for June 11.
