KENTUCKY — Severe thunderstorms could affect parts of Kentucky on Tuesday as a large storm system develops across the central United States and moves toward the Great Lakes, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center.
In a Day 3 outlook issued Sunday, forecasters said scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes region. Portions of western and northern Kentucky are included in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather, while other parts of the state fall under a Marginal Risk (Level 1).
Meteorologists say the threat will develop as a strong upper-level trough moves eastward from northern Mexico and the Southwest into the southern Plains while another system strengthens across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
At the surface, a nearly stationary warm front is expected to stretch eastward from a low-pressure system in the middle Mississippi Valley toward the southern Great Lakes region.
South of this boundary, warm and humid air will surge northward across the Ohio Valley. Dew points are expected to climb into the middle to upper 60s, creating favorable conditions for thunderstorm development.
Forecasters say a strengthening low-level jet Tuesday evening and overnight will increase wind shear across the region. Combined with the warm and unstable air mass, these conditions could allow storms to organize into clusters of supercells capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes.
Storms that develop earlier in the day across the middle Mississippi Valley could move northeast into Kentucky Tuesday evening and overnight before continuing toward the southern Great Lakes region. Some storms could remain severe as they track across the Ohio Valley.
While the overall setup supports scattered severe storms, forecasters say confidence in the exact timing and location of the strongest storms remains uncertain several days in advance. Residents across Kentucky are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as Tuesday approaches and be prepared for possible severe weather.
