INDIANA — Severe thunderstorms could develop across parts of Indiana on Tuesday as a large storm system moves across the central United States toward the Great Lakes, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center.
In a Day 3 outlook issued Sunday evening, the Storm Prediction Center said scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes region during the day Tuesday and into the overnight hours. Much of Indiana is included in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather, with surrounding areas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1).
Meteorologists say the developing storm system will feature a strengthening upper-level trough moving eastward across the southern Plains while another system amplifies across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a nearly stationary warm front is expected to extend eastward from a low-pressure system over the middle Mississippi Valley toward the southern Great Lakes region.
South of this boundary, warm and humid air will surge northward across the Midwest. Dew points in the middle to upper 60s are expected to provide the moisture needed for thunderstorms to develop.
Forecasters say a strengthening low-level jet during the evening and overnight hours will increase wind shear across the region. Combined with the warm and unstable air mass, these conditions could allow storms to organize into clusters of supercells capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes.
Storms that form earlier across the middle Mississippi Valley could track northeast into Indiana Tuesday evening and overnight. Some storms may continue moving toward the southern Great Lakes region into early Wednesday.
While the overall pattern favors scattered severe storms, forecasters say confidence in the exact timing and location of the strongest storms remains uncertain several days in advance. Residents across Indiana are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as Tuesday approaches in case severe weather develops.
