OHIO — A new long-range forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests Ohio could experience a snowier-than-average winter during the 2025–2026 season.
The model’s seasonal snowfall projection, issued October 1, shows estimated totals ranging from about 19 to 40 inches across the state.
According to the ECMWF ensemble mean forecast, the heaviest accumulations are expected in northern and northeastern Ohio, particularly in areas influenced by Lake Erie’s lake-effect snow.
Those regions, including the Cleveland area and the snowbelt of Ashtabula and Geauga counties, could see between 40 and 45 of total snowfall by the end of the season. Central Ohio is forecast to receive around 20 to 30 inches, while western and southern parts of the state could see 20 to 30 inches.
While long-range models are not precise forecasts, they provide a general indication of potential trends. The ECMWF projection suggests that colder air intrusions and more frequent winter storms could bring a snowier-than-usual season across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Ohio’s Seasonal Snowfall Averages:
On average, snowfall totals across Ohio vary widely depending on location and elevation, according to the National Weather Service.
Northern and Northeastern Ohio: typically 45–70 inches per winter, with the heaviest totals in the Lake Erie snowbelt. Central Ohio (Columbus region): averages 25–30 inches. Southern Ohio: generally receives 10–20 inches per year.
If the ECMWF outlook holds true, much of Ohio could end up near or above those historical averages, particularly in central and southern portions of the state that are forecast to receive higher-than-normal totals.
