MARYLAND — Maryland could see an increased risk of early-season snowfall and more active winter storms later this year as forecasters monitor the likely development of El Niño conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday there is now an 82% chance El Niño will develop between May and July 2026 and a 96% chance the pattern will continue through the winter of 2026-27.
El Niño is a climate pattern tied to warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures that can alter storm tracks across the United States. In the Mid-Atlantic, including Maryland, stronger El Niño winters are often associated with wetter conditions and an increased chance of coastal storms and nor’easters during the colder months.
Meteorologists caution that it is still too early to determine exact snowfall totals or whether Maryland will experience major winter storms. However, forecasters say El Niño patterns can increase the likelihood of colder outbreaks interacting with moisture-rich storm systems along the East Coast, particularly from late December through February.
Weather experts in the Mid-Atlantic say a strengthening El Niño could also support a more active storm track heading into late fall and early winter, potentially allowing parts of Maryland to see snow earlier in the season if cold air arrives at the right time.
NOAA officials emphasized that uncertainty remains regarding how strong the El Niño event may become, with no intensity category currently having more than a 37% probability.
The Climate Prediction Center is expected to release updated winter outlooks in the coming months as ocean and atmospheric conditions continue evolving.
