VIRGINIA — A developing El Niño weather pattern could increase the chances for early-season snowfall and winter storm activity across parts of Virginia during the upcoming 2026-27 winter season, according to forecasters with the National Weather Service.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday there is an 82% chance El Niño develops between May and July and a 96% chance it continues through the winter months.
Meteorologists say El Niño winters often bring a more active southern storm track across the eastern United States, which can increase the likelihood of coastal storms and wintry precipitation events in Virginia, especially later in the season. In some past El Niño winters, portions of Virginia have experienced above-average snowfall and significant snowstorms.
Forecasters say colder air arriving at the same time as moisture-rich storm systems could allow for early-season snowfall in parts of the Commonwealth, particularly in the mountains and Shenandoah Valley. However, temperatures during El Niño winters also tend to run warmer overall, especially in eastern and coastal Virginia, which can lead to more mixed precipitation or rain during some storms.
Long-range forecasts remain uncertain because the strength of the developing El Niño is still unknown. NOAA said stronger El Niño events can make certain winter impacts more likely, but they do not guarantee major snowstorms or sustained cold weather.
Weather experts say Virginia’s winter outlook will become clearer later this year as the Pacific climate pattern continues to develop heading into fall and early winter.
