TENNESSEE — While Tennessee is not typically associated with extreme snowfall, historical weather data show that a single winter storm in February is capable of producing a foot of snow in parts of the state under the right conditions.
According to long-term records from the National Weather Service, February is one of the coldest months of the year in Tennessee and often provides the most favorable environment for significant snow events. Average February temperatures across much of the state commonly hover near or below freezing, particularly at night, allowing precipitation to fall as snow rather than rain when sufficient cold air is in place.
Heavy snowfall from a single system is most likely when a strong low-pressure system moves across or just south of the state while cold air is already established at the surface. In these setups, deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico can override cold air trapped near the ground, leading to prolonged snowfall. When snowfall rates are high and the system moves slowly, accumulations can increase rapidly within a relatively short time.
East Tennessee and the Cumberland Plateau have historically been the most vulnerable areas for large single-storm snow totals. Higher elevations near Knoxville, Crossville, and the Smoky Mountains frequently experience colder temperatures and enhanced lift from terrain, which can increase snowfall amounts. In several past February storms, these areas have recorded totals approaching or exceeding 12 inches from one system.
Middle Tennessee, including the Nashville area, has also seen rare but well-documented February storms where snowfall totals reached or exceeded a foot. These events typically occurred when surface temperatures remained near freezing throughout the duration of the storm, preventing melting and allowing snow to accumulate efficiently.
West Tennessee, including Memphis, is less likely to see a foot of snow from a single system but historical records still show instances of double-digit snowfall during strong February winter storms, particularly when Arctic air masses pushed far south ahead of Gulf moisture.
Climatological data confirm that while such events are uncommon, they are not unprecedented. February combines colder air, stronger storm systems, and increased moisture availability compared to other winter months. When those factors align, a single storm can produce heavy, measurable snowfall totals across parts of Tennessee.
Based strictly on historical weather patterns and documented past events, the possibility of a foot of snow from one February system in Tennessee exists, even though it remains a relatively rare occurrence.
