ARKANSAS — Severe thunderstorms could develop across parts of Arkansas on Tuesday as a large storm system moves across the southern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center.
In a Day 3 outlook issued Sunday, the Storm Prediction Center said scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes region.
Arkansas lies within the broader area where conditions may support multiple severe weather hazards, including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.
Meteorologists say the developing severe weather threat will be driven by a strong upper-level trough moving eastward from northern Mexico and the Southwest into the southern Plains. At the same time, a separate upper-level system will strengthen across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
At the surface, a low-pressure system is expected to develop over the central High Plains while a dryline extends southward across the southern Plains. A cold front will eventually overtake the dryline as the system moves east. Ahead of these features, warm and moisture-rich air will spread northward across Arkansas and surrounding states.
Forecasters say dew points in the middle to upper 60s will help create an unstable atmosphere favorable for thunderstorm development. Combined with strong wind shear, these conditions could allow storms to organize into clusters of thunderstorms and supercells capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.
As the cold front advances, storms could merge into larger lines of thunderstorms, which may increase the threat of widespread damaging winds as the system moves east toward the Mississippi Valley.
While forecasters say the overall weather pattern favors scattered severe storms across the region, details about the timing and exact location of the strongest storms remain uncertain several days in advance. Residents across Arkansas are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts and be prepared for possible severe weather on Tuesday.
