PENNSYLVANIA — A new long-range forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates Pennsylvania could be headed for a snowy 2025–2026 winter season.
The model’s ensemble mean snowfall projection, issued October 1, shows seasonal totals ranging from 29 to 57 inches across the state — suggesting a winter that could be colder and snowier than average.
According to the ECMWF data, western Pennsylvania, including areas near Pittsburgh, could see between 33 and 54 inches of snow.
Central Pennsylvania, including Altoona and State College, is projected to receive around 39 to 44 inches, while eastern Pennsylvania, including the Philadelphia region, shows totals between 25 and 30 inches.
The north-central and northeastern regions, particularly the higher elevations and areas closer to the Pocono Mountains, could experience 46 to 57 inches of snowfall.
According to the National Weather Service, on average, Pennsylvania’s winter snowfall varies significantly across the state due to topography and proximity to the Great Lakes.
Western and northern Pennsylvania typically record 40 to 70 inches per season, central regions average 25 to 40 inches, and southeastern areas near Philadelphia generally see 15 to 25 inches.
If the ECMWF forecast verifies, much of Pennsylvania could see snowfall totals near or slightly above these averages, especially in the higher terrain and Great Lakes snowbelt areas.
Meteorologists caution that long-range models do not provide exact predictions but can highlight developing seasonal trends.
The ECMWF outlook points toward a winter pattern favorable for more frequent cold-air outbreaks and storm activity across the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes region.
Residents across Pennsylvania are advised to prepare for the likelihood of an active winter season, with potential impacts on travel, power systems, and daily commutes.
