TENNESSEE — A new long-range weather outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests Tennessee could see a colder and snowier winter than usual during the 2025–2026 season.
The model’s ensemble snowfall forecast, issued October 1, shows totals ranging from about 5 to 20 inches across the state — a sharp increase compared to the state’s historical averages.
According to the forecast, western Tennessee is expected to receive between 5 and 7 inches of snow, while central regions, including Nashville, could see 7 to 12 inches. Eastern Tennessee, particularly in the higher elevations near the Appalachian Mountains, may experience 11 to 20 inches of snowfall by the end of winter.
Historically, Tennessee’s snowfall varies widely by region, according to the National Weather Service.
Western parts of the state typically see 3 to 6 inches per year, central Tennessee averages 5 to 8 inches, and the higher elevations in the east average between 10 and 15 inches — with localized totals over 20 inches in the mountains during strong winters.
If the ECMWF projection holds true, the upcoming season could bring more frequent snow events and above-normal totals for much of the state. That could translate to increased travel disruptions and more opportunities for wintry weather across areas that usually see only light snow.
Meteorologists emphasize that long-range forecasts are designed to highlight potential trends rather than exact totals. Still, the model points toward a more active winter pattern across the Tennessee Valley, driven by colder air intrusions and a favorable storm track.
Residents are encouraged to prepare early for winter weather, ensuring vehicles, homes, and emergency kits are ready before the first major storm arrives.
