TENNESSEE — A foot of snow falling from a single winter storm in Tennessee during February is uncommon in many parts of the state, but historical weather data show it is meteorologically possible under the right conditions.
February is typically one of Tennessee’s more active winter months, according to the National Weather Service. Average February snowfall varies widely across the state due to differences in elevation and geography. In West Tennessee, including areas around Memphis, average February snowfall is generally 1 to 3 inches.
In Middle Tennessee, including Nashville, averages are typically 2 to 4 inches. In East Tennessee, especially in higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains, February averages can range from 4 to more than 10 inches, with significantly higher totals in the highest terrain.
Although monthly averages are well below 12 inches in most lower-elevation areas, Tennessee has experienced individual February storms that produced a foot or more of snow.
For example, during the February 15–16, 2021 winter storm, widespread snowfall totals exceeded 10 inches across portions of West and Middle Tennessee, with some communities measuring 12 inches or more.
The February 1993 “Superstorm,” also known as the “Storm of the Century,” produced more than a foot of snow across large portions of Middle and East Tennessee, with totals exceeding 20 inches in some higher elevations. In February 1958, a significant winter storm brought more than a foot of snow to parts of the state, particularly in western and middle regions.
Climatologically, a single-system snowfall of 12 inches in Tennessee typically requires a strong low-pressure system drawing Gulf of Mexico moisture northward while cold Arctic air is firmly established at the surface and throughout much of the atmosphere.
This often occurs when a deep trough develops over the central United States and a surface low tracks across the Gulf Coast states or along the southern Appalachians. If temperatures remain below freezing from the surface through several thousand feet of the atmosphere, heavy precipitation can fall entirely as snow.
Tennessee’s position in the southeastern United States places it near a frequent winter battleground between cold continental air masses and warmer, moisture-rich air from the Gulf. A slight shift in storm track can determine whether precipitation falls as heavy snow, a wintry mix, or cold rain. Because of this sensitivity, large snowfall events are less frequent than in states farther north.
Elevation plays a key role in snowfall potential. The higher terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and the Great Smoky Mountains enhances both colder surface temperatures and precipitation totals, increasing the likelihood of one-foot accumulations in those areas compared with lower elevations in West Tennessee.
Historical records demonstrate that while a foot of snow from a single February system is not typical statewide, it has occurred multiple times in Tennessee, particularly when strong Gulf moisture interacts with entrenched Arctic air. Based strictly on documented past events and climatological patterns, a 12-inch snowfall from one February storm is possible in Tennessee, though it depends on a precise alignment of cold air, storm track, and moisture availability.
